Why Obama will beat Mccain
McCain says the U.S. should be prepared to stay in Iraq for 100 years while Obama says he would withdraw all troops. Mccain beleives there is nothing wrong with guatnamo bay, while Obama says he will shut it down.Mccain is funded by the old powers, while obama is being funded by the people. McCain doesn't want to lift a finger to help homeowners facing foreclosure while Obama pays lip service to helping homeowners, promises them a measely tax-credit, and mentions vaguely the possibility that their sub-prime loans might be restructured. McCain opposes universal health care coverage and says that the free-market is the solution (as if we don't already have a free-market that is failing to cover 44 million Americans) while Obama will force insurance companies to cover everyone who applies and give tax-credits to low-income people for their health care costs.
And there's the most obvious difference: Obama is a young, smooth-talking Democrat and McCain is a rich grumpy old Republican.
Obama will beat McCain in the general election handily, by a margin of 60-40 at least. How?
Obama is getting a lot of Republican votes (an unheard of phenomenon given the GOP's base of conservative/right-wing whites) and most of them are genuine converts, not saboteurs. He has won the bulk of the independent vote, deflating McCain, in key contests where independents could participate in either party's primaries. He has managed to get huge numbers of new, young voters to the polls (voting registration is up 64 percent since 2004), and he is a big part of the reason the turnout at the primaries now stands at 50 million votes cast. That's 15 million more votes than in 2004 and has set turnout records for almost every state on the Democratic side.
McCain's poll numbers at this point are essentially based on ignorance, his carefully manufactured image as an honorable straight-talking "maverick," and the fact that Clinton and Obama are debating eachother, not him.
Old man McCain is not going to galvanize millions of new, young voters or win independents by promising to occupy Iraq for 100 years, singing about bombing Iran, letting millions of people lose their homes, and twiddling his thumbs as more Americans lose their health care. Unlike his rival, he can't take his base for granted and has been forced to flip-flop on Bush's tax cuts, opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade, and many other issues.
1. McCain is McBush and Bush has an approval rating of 28%. In a country that has been roughly 50-50 in the last two Presidential contests, that means that 22% of those who voted Republican are likely to stay at home or vote for the Democrats. If so, that's a landslide for Obama.
2. McCain is having trouble getting the support of the religious crazies in his party and as he panders to them, he alienates the independent, or secular, voters he needs to win.
3. McCain is having trouble getting money from Republican-Bush donors because they know the Party's over for awhile. As he panders and leans on Bush for money, he alienates the independents.
4. Cindy McCain. Her abject refusal to publish her financial net worth, or income levels, is totally unacceptable for the wife of a Presidential candidate. Even John Kerry's wife disclosed information.
5. John McCain's health, not his age. He has Stage 2a melanoma in his declining years and has refused to disclose his current medical condition or records. This is a condition which must be checked constantly.